New horizons for comparative studies and meta-analyses.

Comparative analyses and meta-analyses are key tools to elucidate broad biological principles, yet the two approaches often appear different in purpose. We propose an integrated approach that can generate deeper insights into ecoevolutionary processes. Marrying comparative and meta-analytic approaches will allow for (i) a more accurate investigation of drivers of biological variation, (ii) a greater ability to account for sources of non-independence in experimental data, (iii) more effective control of publication bias, and (iv) improved transparency and reproducibility. Stronger integration of meta-analytic and comparative studies can also broaden the scope from species-centric investigations to community-level responses and function-valued traits (e.g., reaction norms). We illuminate commonalities, differences, and the transformative potential of combining these methodologies for advancing ecology and evolutionary biology.

Manipulation of the seagrass-associated microbiome reduces disease severity.

Host-associated microbes influence host health and function and can be a first line of defence against infections. While research increasingly shows that terrestrial plant microbiomes contribute to bacterial, fungal, and oomycete disease resistance, no comparable experimental work has investigated marine plant microbiomes or more diverse disease agents. We test the hypothesis that the eelgrass (Zostera marina) leaf microbiome increases resistance to seagrass wasting disease. From field eelgrass with paired diseased and asymptomatic tissue, 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing revealed that bacterial composition and richness varied markedly between diseased and asymptomatic tissue in one of the two years. This suggests that the influence of disease on eelgrass microbial communities may vary with environmental conditions. We next experimentally reduced the eelgrass microbiome with antibiotics and bleach, then inoculated plants with Labyrinthula zosterae, the causative agent of wasting disease. We detected significantly higher disease severity in eelgrass with a native microbiome than an experimentally reduced microbiome. Our results over multiple experiments do not support a protective role of the eelgrass microbiome against L. zosterae. Further studies of these marine host-microbe-pathogen relationships may continue to show new relationships between plant microbiomes and diseases.

Divergent Temporal Trends of Mercury in Arctic Char from Paired Lakes Influenced by Climate-Related Drivers.

Climate-driven changes including rising air temperatures, enhanced permafrost degradation, and altered precipitation patterns can have profound effects on contaminants, such as mercury (Hg), in High Arctic lakes. Two physically similar lakes, East Lake and West Lake at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory on Melville Island, Nunavut, Canada are being affected by climate change differently. Both lakes have experienced permafrost degradation in their catchments; however, West Lake has also undergone multiple underwater Mass Movement Events (MMEs; beginning in fall 2008), leading to a sustained 50-fold increase in turbidity. This provided the unique opportunity to understand the potential impacts of permafrost degradation and other climate-related effects on Hg concentrations and body condition of landlocked Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), an important sentinel species across the Circum-Arctic. Our objectives were to assess temporal trends in char Hg concentrations and to determine potential mechanisms driving the trends. There was a significant decrease in Hg concentrations in East Lake char, averaging 6.5%/year and 3.8%/year for length-adjusted and age-adjusted means, respectively, from 2008 to 2019. Conversely, in West Lake there was a significant increase, averaging 7.9%/year and 8.0%/year for length-adjusted and age-adjusted mean Hg concentrations, respectively, for 2009 to 2017 (the last year with sufficient sample size). The best predictors of length-adjusted Hg concentrations in West Lake were carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios, indicating a shift in diet including possible dietary starvation brought on by the profound increase in lake turbidity. Our study provides an example of how increasing lake turbidity, a likely consequence of climate warming in Arctic lakes, may influence fish condition and Hg concentrations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2712-2725. © 2023 His Majesty the King in Right of Canada and The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada.

The impact of rising temperatures on the prevalence of coral diseases and its predictability: A global meta-analysis.

Coral reefs are under threat from disease as climate change alters environmental conditions. Rising temperatures exacerbate coral disease, but this relationship is likely complex as other factors also influence coral disease prevalence. To better understand this relationship, we meta-analytically examined 108 studies for changes in global coral disease over time alongside temperature, expressed using average summer sea surface temperature (SST) and cumulative heat stress as weekly sea surface temperature anomalies (WSSTAs). We found that both rising average summer SST and WSSTA were associated with global increases in the mean and variability in coral disease prevalence. Global coral disease prevalence tripled, reaching 9.92% in the 25 years examined, and the effect of 'year' became more stable (i.e. prevalence has lower variance over time), contrasting the effects of the two temperature stressors. Regional patterns diverged over time and differed in response to average summer SST. Our model predicted that, under the same trajectory, 76.8% of corals would be diseased globally by 2100, even assuming moderate average summer SST and WSSTA. These results highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate coral disease. Mitigating the impact of rising ocean temperatures on coral disease is a complex challenge requiring global discussion and further study.

Investigating effects of climate-induced changes in water temperature and diet on mercury concentrations in an Arctic freshwater forage fish.

The amount of mercury (Hg) in Arctic lake food webs is, and will continue to be, affected by rapid, ongoing climate change. At warmer temperatures, fish require more energy to sustain growth; changes in their metabolic rates and consuming prey with potentially higher Hg concentrations could result in increased Hg accumulation. To examine the potential implications of climate warming on forage fish Hg accumulation in Arctic lakes, we quantified growth and Hg accumulation in Ninespine Stickleback Pungitius pungitius under different temperature and diet scenarios using bioenergetics models. Four scenarios were considered that examined the role of climate, diet, climate × diet, and climate × diet × elevated prey Hg. As expected, annual fish growth increased with warmer temperatures, but growth rates and Hg accumulation were largely diet dependent. Compared to current growth rates of 0.3 g⋅y-1, fish growth increased at least 200% for fish consuming energy-dense benthic prey and decreased at least 40% for fish consuming pelagic prey. Compared to baseline levels, the Hg burden per kilocalorie of Ninespine Stickleback declined up to 43% with benthic consumption - indicating strong somatic growth dilution - but no more than 4% with pelagic consumption; elevated prey Hg concentrations led to moderate Hg declines in benthic-foraging fish and Hg increases in pelagic-foraging fish. Bioenergetics models demonstrated the complex interaction of water temperature, growth, prey proportions, and prey Hg concentrations that respond to climate change. Further work is needed to resolve mechanisms and rates linking climate change to Hg availability and uptake in Arctic freshwater systems.

A comprehensive database of amphibian heat tolerance.

Rising temperatures represent a significant threat to the survival of ectothermic animals. As such, upper thermal limits represent an important trait to assess the vulnerability of ectotherms to changing temperatures. For instance, one may use upper thermal limits to estimate current and future thermal safety margins (i.e., the proximity of upper thermal limits to experienced temperatures), use this trait together with other physiological traits in species distribution models, or investigate the plasticity and evolvability of these limits for buffering the impacts of changing temperatures. While datasets on thermal tolerance limits have been previously compiled, they sometimes report single estimates for a given species, do not present measures of data dispersion, and are biased towards certain parts of the globe. To overcome these limitations, we systematically searched the literature in seven languages to produce the most comprehensive dataset to date on amphibian upper thermal limits, spanning 3,095 estimates across 616 species. This resource will represent a useful tool to evaluate the vulnerability of amphibians, and ectotherms more generally, to changing temperatures.

Meta-analysis of overall survival and postoperative neurologic deficits after resection or biopsy of butterfly glioblastoma.

Butterfly glioblastoma (bGBM) is a grade 4 glioma with a poor prognosis. Surgical treatment of these cancers has been reviewed in the literature with some recent studies supporting resection as a safe and effective treatment instead of biopsy and adjuvant therapy. This meta-analysis was designed to determine whether there are significant differences in overall survival (OS) and postoperative neurologic deficits (motor, speech, and cranial nerve) following intervention in patients who underwent tumor resection as part of their treatment, compared to patients who underwent biopsy without surgical resection. A literature search was conducted using PubMed (National Library of Medicine) and Embase (Elsevier) to identify articles from each database's earliest records to May 25, 2021, that directly compared the outcomes of biopsy and resection in bGBM patients and met predetermined inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis was conducted to compare the effects of the two management strategies on OS and postoperative neurologic deficits. Six articles met our study inclusion criteria. OS was found to be significantly longer for the resection group at 6 months (odds ratio [OR] 2.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-7.05) and 12 months (OR 3.75, 95% CI 1.10-12.76) than for the biopsy group. No statistically significant differences were found in OS at 18 and 24 months. Resection was associated with an increased rate of postoperative neurologic deficit (OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.02-4.09). Resection offers greater OS up to 1 year postintervention than biopsy alone; however, this comes at the cost of higher rates of postoperative neurologic deficits.

Treatment of ruptured intracranial aneurysms using the novel generation of flow-diverters with surface modification: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Surface modification of flow diverters (FDs) has been explored as a solution for reducing thrombotic risk of these devices, without necessarily using dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT). If effective, this could pose a promising alternative for treatment of ruptured aneurysms not amenable to other modalities. METHODS: We performed a comprehensive search of PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase databases following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyzes guidelines. We included articles reporting use of surface-modified FDs for treatment of ruptured aneurysms. Demographics, subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) severity, aneurysm characteristics, devices used, periprocedural complications, angiographic outcomes, and mortality were extracted for sample size-based weighted analysis. RESULTS: Six studies comprising 59 patients with 64 aneurysms were included. Mean patient age was 56.6 ± 6.3 years and 60.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 46.7-72.9%) were women. The anterior circulation was the location in 60.4% (95%CI, 45.5-73.5%) of aneurysms; 41.8% of the aneurysms were saccular (95%CI, 29.3-55.4%), 16.7% were fusiform (95%CI, 8.3-30.8%), 29.9% were dissecting (95%CI, 12.8-55.4%), 24.4% were blood-blister (95%CI, 15.2-36.7%), and 5.7% were mycotic (95%CI, 2-15.1%). Poor SAH grade was reported in 46.9% (95%CI, 33.3-60.9%). Adjunctive coiling was used in 33.2% (95%CI, 12.4-63.6%). Periprocedural thromboembolic and hemorrhagic complications occurred in 20% (95%CI, 7.1-45.1%) and 8.8% (95%CI, 3.7-19.5%), respectively. Complete occlusion was achieved in 76.4% (95%CI, 58.1-88.3%); no retreatments during follow-up were reported. Overall mortality was 15.1% (95%CI, 7.7-27.6%). There were no differences between single antiplatelet therapy (SAPT) and DAPT regimens with respect to periprocedural thromboembolic complications (P = 0.09), hemorrhagic (P = 0.834) complications, and mortality (P = 0.312). CONCLUSION: Surface-modified FD treatment of ruptured aneurysms resulted in high rates of thromboembolic complications and acceptable rates of hemorrhagic complications. A considerable proportion of aneurysms were nonsaccular. Rates of complete occlusion were high and retreatment were low. Importantly, no statistically significant difference was found between SAPT and DAPT with respect to complications and mortality.

Developmental plasticity in thermal tolerance: Ontogenetic variation, persistence, and future directions.

Understanding the factors affecting thermal tolerance is crucial for predicting the impact climate change will have on ectotherms. However, the role developmental plasticity plays in allowing populations to cope with thermal extremes is poorly understood. Here, we meta-analyse how thermal tolerance is initially and persistently impacted by early (embryonic and juvenile) thermal environments by using data from 150 experimental studies on 138 ectothermic species. Thermal tolerance only increased by 0.13°C per 1°C change in developmental temperature and substantial variation in plasticity (~36%) was the result of shared evolutionary history and species ecology. Aquatic ectotherms were more than three times as plastic as terrestrial ectotherms. Notably, embryos expressed weaker but more heterogenous plasticity than older life stages, with numerous responses appearing as non-adaptive. While developmental temperatures did not have persistent effects on thermal tolerance overall, persistent effects were vastly under-studied, and their direction and magnitude varied with ontogeny. Embryonic stages may represent a critical window of vulnerability to changing environments and we urge researchers to consider early life stages when assessing the climate vulnerability of ectotherms. Overall, our synthesis suggests that developmental changes in thermal tolerance rarely reach levels of perfect compensation and may provide limited benefit in changing environments.

Climate change and mercury in the Arctic: Biotic interactions.

Global climate change has led to profound alterations of the Arctic environment and ecosystems, with potential secondary effects on mercury (Hg) within Arctic biota. This review presents the current scientific evidence for impacts of direct physical climate change and indirect ecosystem change on Hg exposure and accumulation in Arctic terrestrial, freshwater, and marine organisms. As the marine environment is elevated in Hg compared to the terrestrial environment, terrestrial herbivores that now exploit coastal/marine foods when terrestrial plants are iced over may be exposed to higher Hg concentrations. Conversely, certain populations of predators, including Arctic foxes and polar bears, have shown lower Hg concentrations related to reduced sea ice-based foraging and increased land-based foraging. How climate change influences Hg in Arctic freshwater fishes is not clear, but for lacustrine populations it may depend on lake-specific conditions, including interrelated alterations in lake ice duration, turbidity, food web length and energy sources (benthic to pelagic), and growth dilution. In several marine mammal and seabird species, tissue Hg concentrations have shown correlations with climate and weather variables, including climate oscillation indices and sea ice trends; these findings suggest that wind, precipitation, and cryosphere changes that alter Hg transport and deposition are impacting Hg concentrations in Arctic marine organisms. Ecological changes, including northward range shifts of sub-Arctic species and altered body condition, have also been shown to affect Hg levels in some populations of Arctic marine species. Given the limited number of populations and species studied to date, especially within Arctic terrestrial and freshwater systems, further research is needed on climate-driven processes influencing Hg concentrations in Arctic ecosystems and their net effects. Long-term pan-Arctic monitoring programs should consider ancillary datasets on climate, weather, organism ecology and physiology to improve interpretation of spatial variation and time trends of Hg in Arctic biota.

Meta-analytic approaches and effect sizes to account for 'nuisance heterogeneity' in comparative physiology.

Meta-analysis is a powerful tool used to generate quantitatively informed answers to pressing global challenges. By distilling data from broad sets of research designs and study systems into standardised effect sizes, meta-analyses provide physiologists with opportunities to estimate overall effect sizes and understand the drivers of effect variability. Despite this ambition, research designs in the field of comparative physiology can appear, at the outset, as being vastly different to each other because of 'nuisance heterogeneity' (e.g. different temperatures or treatment dosages used across studies). Methodological differences across studies have led many to believe that meta-analysis is an exercise in comparing 'apples with oranges'. Here, we dispel this myth by showing how standardised effect sizes can be used in conjunction with multilevel meta-regression models to both account for the factors driving differences across studies and make them more comparable. We assess the prevalence of nuisance heterogeneity in the comparative physiology literature - showing it is common and often not accounted for in analyses. We then formalise effect size measures (e.g. the temperature coefficient, Q10) that provide comparative physiologists with a means to remove nuisance heterogeneity without the need to resort to more complex statistical models that may be harder to interpret. We also describe more general approaches that can be applied to a variety of different contexts to derive new effect sizes and sampling variances, opening up new possibilities for quantitative synthesis. By using effect sizes that account for components of effect heterogeneity, in combination with existing meta-analytic models, comparative physiologists can explore exciting new questions while making results from large-scale data sets more accessible, comparable and widely interpretable.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the Derivo Embolization Device: a novel surface-modified flow diverter for intracranial aneurysm treatment.

BACKGROUND: Surface-modified flow diverters (FDs) designed to reduce thrombogenicity represent the next frontier for intracranial aneurysm treatment. The Derivo Embolization Device (DED) is a novel FD with titanium oxide and titanium oxynitride finishing of the struts. We performed a systematic review of pertinent literature, aiming to evaluate the device's effectiveness and safety. METHODS: A literature search of PubMed, Embase, and MEDLINE was conducted following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. RESULTS: Five studies comprising 481 aneurysms were included. These studies were conducted in Turkey, Brazil, Germany, Poland, and Italy; two were prospective and three were retrospective. Twenty-six aneurysms (5.4%) were ruptured. The antiplatelet regimens were heterogeneous, but dual antiplatelet therapy was administered preprocedurally in all studies and maintained for 3-12 months before a switch to single antiplatelet therapy. The rate of periprocedural ischemic and hemorrhagic complications was 4.9% (95% CI 2.9% to 7%). Adjunctive coiling was used in 25.6% (95% CI 11.4% to 39.8%) of aneurysms. The complete angiographic occlusion rate was 81.4% (95% CI 71.3% to 91.5%), mortality rate was 2.1% (95% CI 0.4% to 3.9%), with follow-up ranging from 9 to 18 months. Delayed aneurysm rupture was reported in one patient. CONCLUSIONS: The DED has been increasingly used in other countries. We identified low rates of periprocedural complications and mortality and a high rate of complete occlusion.

Lakes at Risk of Chloride Contamination.

Lakes in the Midwest and Northeast United States are at risk of anthropogenic chloride contamination, but there is little knowledge of the prevalence and spatial distribution of freshwater salinization. Here, we use a quantile regression forest (QRF) to leverage information from 2773 lakes to predict the chloride concentration of all 49 432 lakes greater than 4 ha in a 17-state area. The QRF incorporated 22 predictor variables, which included lake morphometry characteristics, watershed land use, and distance to the nearest road and interstate. Model predictions had an r2 of 0.94 for all chloride observations, and an r2 of 0.86 for predictions of the median chloride concentration observed at each lake. The four predictors with the largest influence on lake chloride concentrations were low and medium intensity development in the watershed, crop density in the watershed, and distance to the nearest interstate. Almost 2000 lakes are predicted to have chloride concentrations above 50 mg L-1 and should be monitored. We encourage management and governing agencies to use lake-specific model predictions to assess salt contamination risk as well as to augment their monitoring strategies to more comprehensively protect freshwater ecosystems from salinization.

Tooth development and replacement in the Atlantic Cutlassfish, Trichiurus lepturus, with comparisons to other Scombroidei.

Atlantic Cutlassfish, Trichiurus lepturus, have large, barbed, premaxillary and dentary fangs, and sharp dagger-shaped teeth in their oral jaws. Functional teeth firmly ankylose to the dentigerous bones. We used dry skeletons, histology, SEM, and micro-CT scanning to study 92 specimens of T. lepturus from the western North Atlantic to describe its dentition and tooth replacement. We identified three modes of intraosseous tooth replacement in T. lepturus depending on the location of the tooth in the jaw. Mode 1 relates to replacement of premaxillary fangs, in which new tooth germs enter the lingual surface of the premaxilla, develop horizontally, and rotate into position. We suggest that growth of large fangs in the premaxilla is accommodated by this horizontal development. Mode 2 occurs for dentary fangs: new tooth germs enter the labial surface of the dentary, develop vertically, and erupt into position. Mode 3 describes replacement of lateral teeth, in which new tooth germs enter a trench along the crest of the dentigerous bone, develop vertically, and erupt into position. Such distinct modes of tooth replacement in a teleostean species are unknown. We compared modes of replacement in T. lepturus to 20 species of scombroids to explore the phylogenetic distribution of these three replacement modes. Alternate tooth replacement (in which new teeth erupt between two functional teeth), ankylosis, and intraosseous tooth development are plesiomorphic to Bluefish + other Scombroidei. Our study highlights the complexity and variability of intraosseous tooth replacement. Within tooth replacement systems, key variables include sites of formation of tooth germs, points of entry of tooth germs into dentigerous bones, coupling of tooth germ migration and bone erosion, whether teeth develop horizontally or immediately beneath the tooth to be replaced, and how tooth eruption and ankylosis occur. Developmentally different tooth replacement processes can yield remarkably similar dentitions.

Long-term chloride concentrations in North American and European freshwater lakes.

Anthropogenic sources of chloride in a lake catchment, including road salt, fertilizer, and wastewater, can elevate the chloride concentration in freshwater lakes above background levels. Rising chloride concentrations can impact lake ecology and ecosystem services such as fisheries and the use of lakes as drinking water sources. To analyze the spatial extent and magnitude of increasing chloride concentrations in freshwater lakes, we amassed a database of 529 lakes in Europe and North America that had greater than or equal to ten years of chloride data. For each lake, we calculated climate statistics of mean annual total precipitation and mean monthly air temperatures from gridded global datasets. We also quantified land cover metrics, including road density and impervious surface, in buffer zones of 100 to 1,500 m surrounding the perimeter of each lake. This database represents the largest global collection of lake chloride data. We hope that long-term water quality measurements in areas outside Europe and North America can be added to the database as they become available in the future.

Salting our freshwater lakes.

The highest densities of lakes on Earth are in north temperate ecosystems, where increasing urbanization and associated chloride runoff can salinize freshwaters and threaten lake water quality and the many ecosystem services lakes provide. However, the extent to which lake salinity may be changing at broad spatial scales remains unknown, leading us to first identify spatial patterns and then investigate the drivers of these patterns. Significant decadal trends in lake salinization were identified using a dataset of long-term chloride concentrations from 371 North American lakes. Landscape and climate metrics calculated for each site demonstrated that impervious land cover was a strong predictor of chloride trends in Northeast and Midwest North American lakes. As little as 1% impervious land cover surrounding a lake increased the likelihood of long-term salinization. Considering that 27% of large lakes in the United States have >1% impervious land cover around their perimeters, the potential for steady and long-term salinization of these aquatic systems is high. This study predicts that many lakes will exceed the aquatic life threshold criterion for chronic chloride exposure (230 mg L-1), stipulated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in the next 50 y if current trends continue.

Dasatinib inhibits TGFß-induced myofibroblast differentiation through Src-SRF Pathway.

Persistent myofibroblast differentiation is a hallmark of fibrotic diseases. Myofibroblasts are characterized by de novo expression of alpha smooth muscle actin (αSMA) and excess fibronectin assembly. Recent studies provide conflicting reports on the effects of tyrosine kinase inhibitor dasatinib on myofibroblast differentiation and fibrosis. Also, it is not fully understood whether dasatinib modulates myofibroblast differentiation by targeting Src kinase. Herein, we investigated the effect of dasatinib on cSrc and transforming growth factor-ß (TGFß)-induced myofibroblast differentiation in vitro. Our results indicated that selective Src kinase inhibition using PP2 mimicked the effect of dasatinib in attenuating myofibroblast differentiation as evident by blunted αSMA expression and modest, but significant inhibition of fibronectin assembly in both NIH 3T3 and fibrotic human lung fibroblasts. Mechanistically, our data showed that dasatinib modulates αSMA synthesis through Src kinase-mediated modulation of serum response factor expression. Collectively, our results demonstrate that dasatinib modulates myofibroblast differentiation through Src-SRF pathway. Thus, dasatinib could potentially be a therapeutic option in fibrotic diseases.

Robust Distal Tip Cell Pathfinding in the Face of Temperature Stress Is Ensured by Two Conserved microRNAS in Caenorhabditis elegans.

Biological robustness, the ability of an organism to maintain a steady-state output as genetic or environmental inputs change, is critical for proper development. MicroRNAs have been implicated in biological robustness mechanisms through their post-transcriptional regulation of genes and gene networks. Previous research has illustrated examples of microRNAs promoting robustness as part of feedback loops and genetic switches and by buffering noisy gene expression resulting from environmental and/or internal changes. Here we show that the evolutionarily conserved microRNAs mir-34 and mir-83 (homolog of mammalian mir-29) contribute to the robust migration pattern of the distal tip cells in Caenorhabditis elegans by specifically protecting against stress from temperature changes. Furthermore, our results indicate that mir-34 and mir-83 may modulate the integrin signaling involved in distal tip cell migration by potentially targeting the GTPase cdc-42 and the beta-integrin pat-3. Our findings suggest a role for mir-34 and mir-83 in integrin-controlled cell migrations that may be conserved through higher organisms. They also provide yet another example of microRNA-based developmental robustness in response to a specific environmental stress, rapid temperature fluctuations.

Anomalous rise in algal production linked to lakewater calcium decline through food web interactions.

Increased algal blooms are a threat to aquatic ecosystems worldwide, although the combined effects of multiple stressors make it difficult to determine the underlying causes. We explore whether changes in trophic interactions in response to declining calcium (Ca) concentrations, a water quality issue only recently recognized in Europe and North America, can be linked with unexplained bloom production. Using a palaeolimnological approach analysing the remains of Cladocera (herbivorous grazers) and visual reflectance spectroscopically inferred chlorophyll a from the sediments of a Nova Scotia (Canada) lake, we show that a keystone grazer, Daphnia, declined in the early 1990s and was replaced by a less effective grazer, Bosmina, while inferred chlorophyll a levels tripled at constant total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. The decline in Daphnia cannot be attributed to changes in pH, thermal stratification or predation, but instead is linked to declining lakewater [Ca]. The consistency in the timing of changes in Daphnia and inferred chlorophyll a suggests top-down control on algal production, providing, to our knowledge, the first evidence of a link between lakewater [Ca] decline and elevated algal production mediated through the effects of [Ca] decline on Daphnia. [Ca] decline has severe implications for whole-lake food webs, and presents yet another mechanism for potential increases in algal blooms.